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Monday, November 25, 2013

Bake fail equivalent

A bake fail in Second Life may seem trivial but it could be where we're headed in real life -- a point where what we know as real no longer resolves into what we see as real and vice versa. 

The term being applied to this moment is technological singularity and it seems to be fast approaching:
The technological singularity, or simply the singularity, is a theoretical moment in time when artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence, radically changing civilization, and perhaps human nature. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence may be difficult for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is often seen as an occurrence (akin to a gravitational singularity) beyond which the future course of human history is unpredictable or even unfathomable.

Mathematician John von Neumann (1903-1957) may have said it best.  He was the first to postulate singularity, calling it accelerating change. Stanislaw Ulam reports:
One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.

Ray Kurzweil -- author, inventor, futurist, a director of engineering at Google, and another supporter of the singularity theory -- wrote the book The Singularity Is Near, which is part fiction, part non-fiction.  In it he interviews 20 big thinkers like Marvin Minsky.

So far the references have been artificial intelligence and software, but hardware is also fast approaching a point of singularity, as exhibited by Moore's Law.
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image: graph, "Microprocessor Transistor Counts 1971-2011 & Moore's Law"
Benzirpi, Microprocessor Transistor Counts & Moore's Law, Wikipedia
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Concerns about society being overwhelmed by rampant artificial intelligence (think SkyNet) are being addressed by such organizations as the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI).

Personally, I wonder if our effectively living in virtual worlds, such as Second Life or your favorite MMORPG, is really preparing us for a completely virtual life.  Others are looking at the possibility, too.  Futurist Thomas Frey asks "Are We Destined to Merge With Our Avatars?"  And columnist James Wagner Au reports in New World Notes, "Scientists Testing to See if First Life is Really Second Life."  He, in turn is quoting an article in the Huffington Post:
The theory basically goes that any civilisation which could evolve to a 'post-human' stage would almost certainly learn to run simulations on the scale of a universe. And that given the size of reality - billions of worlds, around billions of suns - it is fairly likely that if this is possible, it has already happened.
Which in turn reminds me of the old, old theory, jokingly made, that our world is only a molecule in a frying pan.
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image: Mike's poster on the Technological Singularity
Mike, Technological Singularity, demotivationalposters.net
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-- Marge


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